Rio Ave
vs
SC Braga
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Braga
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — SC Braga is the favourite, not a value bet.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rio Ave vs SC Braga
| Probability | Rio Ave | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.2% | 30.2% | 49.6% |
| Market | 16.1% | 22.6% | 61.3% |
| Final | 17.1% | 24.5% | 58.4% |
| Edge | +1.0% | +1.9% | -2.9% |
Why SC Braga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.79.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (our 58.4% × 1.60 − 1).
Rio Ave vs SC Braga match preview
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Rio Ave hosts SC Braga with probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. SC Braga has a 58% chance of winning, while Rio Ave is at 17%, and a draw stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 0.88 for Rio Ave and 1.54 for SC Braga.
Recent form shows Rio Ave with a mixed record of L-L-W-W-L-D, while SC Braga has struggled, recording W-L-W-L-L-L. In their last two encounters, Rio Ave has yet to secure a win against SC Braga, who has one victory and one draw in that span. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rio Ave and SC Braga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Rio Ave and SC Braga attack and defence ratings
Rio Ave
SC Braga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rio Ave vs SC Braga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 58.4% | 1.71 | -2.9% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rio Ave | 17.1% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| SC Braga | 58.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win | 24.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 50.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 14.5% |
| 1-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Rio Ave vs SC Braga stats
Rio Ave and SC Braga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rio Ave and SC Braga season so far
Rio Ave record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 9 matches.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
SC Braga record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | SC Braga | Rio Ave | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Rio Ave | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rio Ave vs SC Braga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 16.1%, draw 22.6%, away 61.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.88 | 4.27 | 1.60 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.53 |
| BetVictor | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.80 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Betfair | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Dafabet | 6.00 | 4.30 | 1.56 |
| Marathonbet | 5.65 | 4.10 | 1.53 |
| Pinnacle | 5.98 | 4.26 | 1.53 |
| SBO | 5.13 | 3.67 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .