Alverca
vs
Casa Pia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alverca
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Alverca is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alverca vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alverca vs Casa Pia
| Probability | Alverca | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.6% | 32.8% | 22.6% |
| Market | 53.5% | 25.8% | 20.7% |
| Final | 51.3% | 27.6% | 21.2% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +1.7% | +0.5% |
Why Alverca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.77.
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (our 51.3% × 1.81 − 1).
Alverca vs Casa Pia match preview
Alverca faces Casa Pia in a Primeira Liga match with Alverca holding a 47% probability of winning, while Casa Pia stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline from our model predicts a narrow 1-0 victory for Alverca, which has a 15% likelihood. Alverca's expected goals are 1.28, compared to Casa Pia's 0.79, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Alverca has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Casa Pia has three wins and three losses in the same period. Historically, Alverca has dominated their encounters with Casa Pia, winning both of their last two meetings without conceding. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alverca and Casa Pia expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Alverca and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
Alverca
Casa Pia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alverca vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 51.3% | 1.95 | -2.2% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 51.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Casa Pia | 21.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 55.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.4% |
| 0-0 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Alverca vs Casa Pia stats
Alverca and Casa Pia recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alverca and Casa Pia season so far
Alverca record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Casa Pia record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 10 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alverca vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Alverca | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Casa Pia | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-02 | Alverca | Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alverca vs Casa Pia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 25.8%, away 20.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.75 | 4.69 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.70 | 4.55 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.64 | 4.63 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.24 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .