Benfica
vs
Alverca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.82.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benfica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Benfica vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benfica vs Alverca
| Probability | Benfica | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.8% | 16.4% | 8.8% |
| Market | 80.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% |
| Final | 78.7% | 13.9% | 7.4% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.8% | +0.5% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 78.7% × 1.23 − 1).
Benfica vs Alverca match preview
Benfica enters this match against Alverca with a strong probability of winning at 78%, while Alverca has an 8% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Benfica, with expected goals of 2.60 for Benfica compared to just 0.82 for Alverca. Recent form shows Benfica with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Alverca has experienced two losses and four wins in the same timeframe.
Historically, Benfica has dominated their recent encounters with Alverca, winning both of their last two meetings without conceding a goal. In terms of scoring, there is a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and a 53% chance that both teams will find the net. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benfica and Alverca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
Benfica and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Benfica
Alverca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benfica vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 78.7% | 1.27 | -1.3% | 1.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 78.7% |
| Draw | 13.9% | |
| Alverca | 7.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 92.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 21.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 54.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 25.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 3-0 | 9.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Benfica vs Alverca stats
Benfica and Alverca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benfica and Alverca season so far
Benfica record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Alverca record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Benfica vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Benfica | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Alverca | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benfica vs Alverca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.0%, draw 13.1%, away 6.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.18 | 8.15 | 16.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.14 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 7.30 | 14.00 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 7.50 | 14.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.18 | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 6.95 | 14.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 6.53 | 9.65 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 6.38 | 10.60 |
| William Hill | 1.17 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .