FC Porto
vs
Estoril
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Porto
2 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FC Porto is the favourite, not a value bet.
FC Porto vs Estoril overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto vs Estoril
| Probability | FC Porto | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.0% | 20.9% | 9.1% |
| Market | 74.8% | 16.3% | 9.0% |
| Final | 73.6% | 17.4% | 9.0% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +1.2% | +0.0% |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 73.6% × 1.30 − 1).
FC Porto vs Estoril match preview
FC Porto enters the match against Estoril with a strong probability of winning at 68%, while Estoril's chances stand at just 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of FC Porto, with a 15% likelihood. Porto's expected goals are 1.90, significantly higher than Estoril's 0.58, indicating a clear offensive advantage.
Recent form shows FC Porto with three wins in their last six matches, while Estoril has struggled, recording only one draw and five losses in the same period. In their last two head-to-head encounters, FC Porto has secured two victories without conceding any goals to Estoril. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome despite Porto's favorable statistics.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Porto and Estoril expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
FC Porto and Estoril attack and defence ratings
FC Porto
Estoril
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Porto vs Estoril markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 73.6% | 1.36 | -1.2% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 73.6% |
| Draw | 17.4% | |
| Estoril | 9.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.3% |
| No | 59.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 45.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 30.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | |
| 3-0 | 10.0% |
FC Porto vs Estoril stats
FC Porto and Estoril recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Porto and Estoril season so far
FC Porto record
- They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Estoril record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Porto vs Estoril head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Estoril | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-30 | FC Porto | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Porto vs Estoril odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 74.8%, draw 16.3%, away 9.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.30 | 6.09 | 10.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.75 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.25 | 6.20 | 11.75 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.50 | 9.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 5.46 | 11.08 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .