Casa Pia
vs
Sporting CP
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sporting CP
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sporting CP is the favourite, not a value bet.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Casa Pia vs Sporting CP
| Probability | Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.6% | 26.3% | 53.1% |
| Market | 8.1% | 15.5% | 76.4% |
| Final | 11.2% | 18.2% | 70.6% |
| Edge | +3.1% | +2.7% | -5.8% |
Why Sporting CP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.98.
Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (our 70.6% × 1.26 − 1).
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP match preview
Casa Pia faces Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga with a significant disparity in expected performance. Casa Pia has a 11% chance of winning, while Sporting CP is favored at 71%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.98 for Casa Pia and 1.70 for Sporting CP.
In terms of recent form, Casa Pia has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Sporting CP has experienced two losses, two draws, and one win. Historically, Sporting CP has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two meetings against Casa Pia. The probabilities indicate a competitive match, but Sporting CP's strong position suggests they may secure the points.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Casa Pia and Sporting CP expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.67
Casa Pia and Sporting CP attack and defence ratings
Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP | 70.6% | 1.42 | -5.8% | 1.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 11.2% |
| Draw | 18.2% | |
| Sporting CP | 70.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.1% |
| No | 47.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 46.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | |
| 0-2 | 9.9% |
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP stats
Casa Pia and Sporting CP recent form
| Casa Pia |
WWLWLD |
| Sporting CP |
LLWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Casa Pia and Sporting CP season so far
Casa Pia record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting CP record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Sporting CP | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-08 | Casa Pia | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Casa Pia vs Sporting CP odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 8.1%, draw 15.5%, away 76.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.50 | 6.85 | 1.25 |
| BetVictor | 11.50 | 5.75 | 1.20 |
| Betano | 11.75 | 5.90 | 1.26 |
| Betfair | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 |
| Marathonbet | 10.25 | 6.10 | 1.23 |
| Pinnacle | 11.32 | 6.74 | 1.22 |