Santa Clara
vs
Benfica
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benfica
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.12.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benfica is the favourite, not a value bet.
Santa Clara vs Benfica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Clara vs Benfica
| Probability | Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.0% | 25.7% | 51.2% |
| Market | 11.1% | 20.7% | 68.2% |
| Final | 14.1% | 22.0% | 63.9% |
| Edge | +3.0% | +1.2% | -4.2% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (our 63.9% × 1.42 − 1).
Santa Clara vs Benfica match preview
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Santa Clara faces Benfica, with probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Santa Clara has a 14% chance of winning, while Benfica stands at 64%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.08 for Santa Clara and 1.72 for Benfica.
Both teams have shown varying recent form, with Santa Clara recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Benfica has been more consistent, winning five out of their last six. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 53%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%, suggesting an engaging contest ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santa Clara and Benfica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Santa Clara and Benfica attack and defence ratings
Santa Clara
Benfica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santa Clara vs Benfica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 63.9% | 1.56 | -4.2% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 14.1% |
| Draw | 22.0% | |
| Benfica | 63.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Santa Clara vs Benfica stats
Santa Clara and Benfica recent form
| Santa Clara |
LWDWWD |
| Benfica |
WWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santa Clara and Benfica season so far
Santa Clara record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benfica record
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Santa Clara vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Santa Clara | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-12 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-15 | Santa Clara | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-30 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Taça da Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 4-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2023-01-21 | Santa Clara | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-3 |
| 2022-02-12 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-09-11 | Santa Clara | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-5 |
| 2021-04-26 | Benfica | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santa Clara vs Benfica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 11.1%, draw 20.5%, away 68.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 8.95 | 4.64 | 1.42 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| BetVictor | 8.00 | 4.33 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 8.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| Betfair | 9.00 | 4.75 | 1.33 |
| Dafabet | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.41 |
| Marathonbet | 8.50 | 4.40 | 1.37 |
| Pinnacle | 8.38 | 4.91 | 1.36 |
| SBO | 7.24 | 4.20 | 1.31 |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
26 snapshots recorded, from .