Alverca
vs
Arouca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alverca
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Alverca vs Arouca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alverca vs Arouca
| Probability | Alverca | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.7% | 26.8% | 39.5% |
| Market | 44.1% | 28.4% | 27.5% |
| Final | 41.5% | 28.0% | 30.5% |
| Edge | -10.5% | -1.6% | +12.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Alverca vs Arouca match preview
Alverca faces Arouca in a Primeira Liga matchup with Alverca holding a 42% probability of winning, while Arouca stands at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Alverca, with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.41 for Alverca and 1.54 for Arouca.
In terms of recent form, Alverca has recorded one win, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Arouca has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss. The head-to-head record shows both teams with one win each in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alverca and Arouca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Alverca and Arouca attack and defence ratings
Alverca
Arouca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alverca vs Arouca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 41.5% | 2.41 | -10.5% | 2.21 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 41.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Arouca | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alverca win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 66.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Alverca vs Arouca stats
Alverca and Arouca recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alverca and Arouca season so far
Alverca record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Arouca record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alverca vs Arouca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Alverca | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-14 | Arouca | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alverca vs Arouca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 28.4%, away 27.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.21 | 3.34 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.13 | 3.71 |
| SBO | 2.12 | 2.94 | 2.94 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .