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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca

3 – 4 Full time

22′Ivan Barbero
49′César Vinicius Cesinha
73′Chamito Alfandega
73′Pedro Santos
76′Bruninho
88′Brian Mansilla
90′David Monteiro
90′Brian Mansilla
105′Fally Mayulu
CF Os Belenenses 24%
Draw 25%
Arouca 51%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca overview

Garuda Lions analysis: CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCF Os BelenensesDrawArouca
Model37.7%33.9%28.4%
Market18.9%22.2%58.9%
Final23.6%25.1%51.3%
Edge+4.7%+2.9%-7.6%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

CF Os Belenens ↓ / Arouca → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 11% 1 14% 15% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 59%
3+ goals 31%
No goals 16%

CF Os Belenenses and Arouca expected goals

CF Os Belenenses 1.07
Arouca 0.88

Total expected goals: 1.95

CF Os Belenenses and Arouca attack and defence ratings

CF Os Belenenses

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.63 -37%

Arouca

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.74 -26%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca: result vs prediction

CF Os Belenenses 3 – 4 Arouca

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Arouca 51.3% 1.95 -7.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 69.1% 1.45 — —
Both teams to score No 60.2% 1.66 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.8% 1.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2CF Os Belenenses23.6%
Draw25.1%
Arouca51.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530.9%
Under 2.569.1%
Both teams to scoreYes39.8%
No60.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)48.7%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)76.4%
Handicap -1Arouca win10.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.1%
Loss71.8%
Correct score (top 3)0-015.6%
1-114.8%
1-013.8%

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca stats

CF Os Belenenses and Arouca recent form

newest first
CF Os Belenenses WWDLLW
Arouca WDLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.9%, draw 22.2%, away 58.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.82 4.33 1.56
Bet365 5.25 3.80 1.50
BetVictor 5.50 3.80 1.55
Marathonbet 4.85 4.33 1.54
Pinnacle 4.23 4.39 1.59
William Hill 4.60 3.90 1.55

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.83 —
X 4.12 —
2 1.55 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .