CF Os Belenenses
vs
Arouca
Garuda Lions Prediction: CF Os Belenenses
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca
| Probability | CF Os Belenenses | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 32.9% | 27.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 39.3% | 32.9% | 27.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why CF Os Belenenses
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca match preview
CF Os Belenenses and Arouca face off in the Taça de Portugal with kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, CF Os Belenenses holds a 39% probability of winning, while Arouca has a 28% chance, and a draw stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of CF Os Belenenses, with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals suggest CF Os Belenenses will score 1.13 and Arouca 0.91.
In terms of recent form, CF Os Belenenses has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Arouca has secured one win, two draws, and two losses. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 33%, and there is a 42% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
CF Os Belenenses and Arouca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.04
CF Os Belenenses and Arouca attack and defence ratings
CF Os Belenenses
Arouca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Os Belenenses | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CF Os Belenenses | 39.3% |
| Draw | 32.9% | |
| Arouca | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.8% |
| No | 58.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | CF Os Belenenses win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 14.3% | |
| 1-0 | 13.4% |
CF Os Belenenses vs Arouca stats
CF Os Belenenses and Arouca recent form
| CF Os Belenenses |
WWDLLW |
| Arouca |
DLDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.