Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses

0 – 2 Full time

65′E. Barros
75′Bruninho
Beira-Mar 21%
Draw 25%
CF Os Belenenses 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBeira-MarDrawCF Os Belenenses
Model32.4%26.7%40.9%
Market17.1%24.9%58.0%
Final20.9%25.4%53.7%
Edge+15.4%+1.7%-17.1%

Confidence: Low

Why CF Os Belenenses

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Beira-Mar ↓ / CF Os Belenens → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 6% 1 12% 9% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Beira-Mar and CF Os Belenenses expected goals

Beira-Mar 1.39
CF Os Belenenses 1.57

Total expected goals: 2.95

Beira-Mar and CF Os Belenenses attack and defence ratings

Beira-Mar

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 1.34 +34%

CF Os Belenenses

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses: result vs prediction

Beira-Mar 0 – 2 CF Os Belenenses

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 CF Os Belenenses 53.7% 1.86 -17.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.6% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.4% 1.65 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.1% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 59.4% 1.68 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Beira-Mar20.9%
Draw25.4%
CF Os Belenenses53.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%
Both teams to scoreYes60.4%
No39.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.3%
12 (either side)74.6%
X2 (draw or away)79.1%
Handicap -1CF Os Belenenses win20.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss59.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-28.9%
2-17.8%

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses stats

Beira-Mar and CF Os Belenenses recent form

newest first
Beira-Mar DL
CF Os Belenenses WDLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Beira-Mar vs CF Os Belenenses odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 17.2%, draw 24.7%, away 58.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.46 3.65 1.54
Bet365 5.25 3.60 1.57
BetVictor 5.50 3.75 1.55
Betfair 5.00 3.80 1.53
Marathonbet 5.35 3.65 1.52
Pinnacle 4.38 3.61 1.61
William Hill 4.80 3.50 1.57

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.30 ▼ -0.10
X 3.63 ▼ -0.05
2 1.56 ▲ +0.01

3 snapshots recorded, from .