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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·1/128-finals

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses

1 – 2 Full time

Lusitano Évora 1911 56%
Draw 28%
CF Os Belenenses 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLusitano Évora 1911DrawCF Os Belenenses
Model56.4%27.7%15.9%
Market———
Final56.4%27.7%15.9%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Lusitano Évora 1911

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 0.72.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 5 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lusitano Évora ↓ / CF Os Belenens → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 15% 13% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 67%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Lusitano Évora 1911 and CF Os Belenenses expected goals

Lusitano Évora 1911 1.56
CF Os Belenenses 0.72

Total expected goals: 2.27

Lusitano Évora 1911 and CF Os Belenenses attack and defence ratings

Lusitano Évora 1911

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 0.69 -31%

CF Os Belenenses

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.70 -30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses: result vs prediction

Lusitano Évora 1911 1 – 2 CF Os Belenenses

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lusitano Évora 1911 56.4% 1.77 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.4% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.1% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.7% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lusitano Évora 191156.4%
Draw27.7%
CF Os Belenenses15.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.6%
Under 2.560.4%
Both teams to scoreYes41.4%
No58.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.1%
12 (either side)72.3%
X2 (draw or away)43.6%
Handicap -1Lusitano Évora 1911 win30.7%
Push (exactly one goal)25.6%
Loss43.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-014.9%
1-112.6%
2-012.5%

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses stats

Lusitano Évora 1911 and CF Os Belenenses recent form

newest first
Lusitano Évora 1911 LWWWW
CF Os Belenenses DLLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 5 completed matches.

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lusitano Évora 1911 vs CF Os Belenenses odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.