Nacional
vs
SC Braga
Garuda Lions Prediction: SC Braga
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Nacional vs SC Braga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional vs SC Braga
| Probability | Nacional | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 30.7% | 42.5% |
| Market | 14.4% | 22.3% | 63.3% |
| Final | 17.5% | 24.4% | 58.1% |
| Edge | +12.4% | +8.4% | -20.8% |
Why SC Braga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Nacional vs SC Braga match preview
Nacional faces SC Braga in the Primeira Liga, with the match kicking off on October 25, 2026. The probabilities indicate a challenging match for Nacional, who have an 18% chance of winning, while SC Braga stands at 58%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with expected goals of 0.98 for Nacional and 1.29 for SC Braga. Recent form shows Nacional struggling significantly, having lost their last six matches, whereas SC Braga has a mixed record with two losses, one draw, and two wins in their last five games.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, our model suggests a 40% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 47% likelihood for both teams to score. Historically, in their last three encounters, Nacional has secured one win, while SC Braga has won twice. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional and SC Braga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Nacional and SC Braga attack and defence ratings
Nacional
SC Braga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional vs SC Braga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 58.1% | 1.72 | -20.8% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 17.5% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| SC Braga | 58.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Nacional vs SC Braga stats
Nacional and SC Braga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional and SC Braga season so far
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
SC Braga record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Nacional | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-23 | SC Braga | Nacional | Taça de Portugal | 4-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | SC Braga | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional vs SC Braga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.4%, draw 22.3%, away 63.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.67 | 4.38 | 1.53 |
| Bet365 | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.48 |
| BetVictor | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.45 |
| Betano | 6.70 | 4.25 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
| Marathonbet | 6.40 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .