Garuda Lions
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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Salgueiros vs Estoril

1 – 1 Full time

31′M. Robin
60′M. RobinJ. Holsgrove
60′PeixinhoR. Guitane
63′Ze ThiagoJoel
63′K. MakindeM. Evora
69′A. Tsoungui
80′D. Monteiro
83′D. Monteiro
85′J. Carvalho
86′A. CamblanF. Medrano
86′A. TsounguiR. Sanchez
87′C. J. Antunes TiagoD. Simao
88′I. M. LemosN. Goncalves
89′R. Guitane
108′R. JurisicT. Parente
113′D. MonteiroM. Santos
120′J. Carvalho
120′J. Holsgrove
120′F. Medrano
120′Joel
120′R. Guitane

Estadio do Bolhao, Fiaes

Salgueiros 25%
Draw 21%
Estoril 54%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Salgueiros vs Estoril overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Salgueiros vs Estoril

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySalgueirosDrawEstoril
Model63.7%22.8%13.5%
Market11.7%20.9%67.5%
Final24.7%21.3%54.0%
Edge+13.0%+0.5%-13.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Salgueiros ↓ / Estoril → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 11% 11% 2 12% 10% 3 8% 6% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Salgueiros and Estoril expected goals

Salgueiros 1.97
Estoril 0.81

Total expected goals: 2.78

Salgueiros and Estoril attack and defence ratings

Salgueiros

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Estoril

Attack 0.54 -46%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Salgueiros vs Estoril: result vs prediction

Salgueiros 1 – 1 Estoril

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Salgueiros vs Estoril markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Estoril 54.0% 1.85 -13.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.6% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score No 51.3% 1.95 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.7% 1.27 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 86.5% 1.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Salgueiros24.7%
Draw21.3%
Estoril54.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
Both teams to scoreYes48.7%
No51.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)46.0%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)75.3%
Handicap -1Estoril win4.3%
Push (exactly one goal)9.2%
Loss86.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.1%
1-011.2%
1-110.9%

Salgueiros vs Estoril stats

Salgueiros and Estoril recent form

newest first
Salgueiros WWLW
Estoril LLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.

Salgueiros vs Estoril head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Salgueiros vs Estoril odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 11.7%, draw 20.9%, away 67.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 8.15 4.40 1.37
Bet365 7.00 4.50 1.33
Marathonbet 8.10 4.40 1.36
Pinnacle 7.86 4.10 1.33
William Hill 7.50 3.90 1.36

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.