Alcochetense
vs
Maritimo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Alcochetense
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Alcochetense vs Maritimo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcochetense vs Maritimo
| Probability | Alcochetense | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.3% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 73.3% | 17.0% | 9.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alcochetense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.56 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 1 for the opposition.
Alcochetense vs Maritimo match preview
Alcochetense enters the match against Maritimo with a strong probability of winning at 73%. Their recent form shows two consecutive wins, contributing to an expected goals tally of 2.56. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, occurring with an 11% probability. Additionally, there is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 54% likelihood of scoring.
In contrast, Maritimo has struggled recently, recording one win in their last six matches, with three losses and two draws. Their expected goals are significantly lower at 0.86, indicating a challenging offensive performance. With a 10% chance of winning and a 17% probability of a draw, Maritimo will need to improve to compete effectively against Alcochetense.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alcochetense and Maritimo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Alcochetense and Maritimo attack and defence ratings
Alcochetense
Maritimo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alcochetense vs Maritimo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alcochetense win | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 73.3% |
| Draw | 17.0% | |
| Maritimo | 9.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alcochetense win | 52.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 26.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 3-0 | 9.2% |
Alcochetense vs Maritimo stats
Alcochetense and Maritimo recent form
| Alcochetense |
WWL |
| Maritimo |
DLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.