Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·Round of 64
Alcochetense
vs
Maritimo
1 – 2 Full time
| 22′ | M. Dominguez | ||
| 33′ | R. Fernandes | ||
| 46′ | R. FernandesR. Correia | ||
| 49′ | R. Andrade | ||
| 55′ | M. Boakye | ||
| 62′ | Alcochetense | ||
| 64′ | S. Bouzaidi | ||
| 64′ | J. Precatado | ||
| 75′ | SimoM. Bassouamina | ||
| 75′ | M. BoakyeA. Butzke | ||
| 77′ | P. Henrique | ||
| 83′ | M. Tejon | ||
| 84′ | M. DominguezT. Tavares | ||
| 90′ | Maritimo |
Alcochetense
75%
Draw
16%
Maritimo
9%
Alcochetense vs Maritimo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcochetense vs Maritimo
| Probability | Alcochetense | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.5% | 15.8% | 8.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 75.5% | 15.8% | 8.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alcochetense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.68 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
69%
No goals
4%
Alcochetense and Maritimo expected goals
Alcochetense
2.68
Maritimo
0.85
Total expected goals: 3.53
Alcochetense and Maritimo attack and defence ratings
Alcochetense
Attack
1.50 +50%
Defence
0.77 -23%
Maritimo
Attack
0.75 -25%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alcochetense vs Maritimo: result vs prediction
Alcochetense 1 – 2 Maritimo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alcochetense vs Maritimo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Alcochetense win | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 75.5% |
| Draw | 15.8% | |
| Maritimo | 8.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.0% |
| No | 46.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alcochetense win | 55.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 24.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.5% |
| 3-0 | 9.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.9% |
Alcochetense vs Maritimo stats
Alcochetense and Maritimo recent form
| Alcochetense |
WWL |
| Maritimo |
LDLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.