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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 128

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica

2 – 0 Full time

5′Alcochetense
30′Alcochetense
Alcochetense 53%
Draw 22%
CF Benfica 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  model-only, no market odds

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Alcochetense vs CF Benfica

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlcochetenseDrawCF Benfica
Model52.9%22.0%25.1%
Market———
Final52.9%22.0%25.1%
Edge———

Confidence: Low

Why Alcochetense

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.51.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Alcochetense ↓ / CF Benfica → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 9% 6% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 7% 5% 4+ 6% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 72%
No goals 3%

Alcochetense and CF Benfica expected goals

Alcochetense 2.20
CF Benfica 1.51

Total expected goals: 3.71

Alcochetense and CF Benfica attack and defence ratings

Alcochetense

Attack 1.55 +55%
Defence 0.88 -12%

CF Benfica

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.83 -17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica: result vs prediction

Alcochetense 2 – 0 CF Benfica

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 128 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Alcochetense 52.9% 1.89 — —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.7% 1.39 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.0% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.0% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.5% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Alcochetense52.9%
Draw22.0%
CF Benfica25.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.7%
Under 2.528.3%
Both teams to scoreYes70.0%
No30.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.9%
12 (either side)78.0%
X2 (draw or away)47.1%
Handicap -1Alcochetense win32.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss47.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.0%
1-18.9%
2-26.7%

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica stats

Alcochetense and CF Benfica recent form

newest first
Alcochetense WL
CF Benfica W

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Alcochetense vs CF Benfica odds

No bookmaker odds yet

Bookmakers usually price a fixture ~14 days before kickoff. We record snapshots twice a day, so the comparison table and price movement will appear here as soon as the market opens. Until then every probability on this page is model-only.