Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Alcochetense
vs
Fayal
8 – 0 Full time
Alcochetense
56%
Draw
22%
Fayal
22%
Alcochetense vs Fayal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcochetense vs Fayal
| Probability | Alcochetense | Draw | Fayal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.9% | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.9% | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Alcochetense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.27.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
87%
3+ goals
67%
No goals
4%
Alcochetense and Fayal expected goals
Alcochetense
2.17
Fayal
1.27
Total expected goals: 3.44
Alcochetense and Fayal attack and defence ratings
Alcochetense
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Fayal
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.36 +36%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alcochetense vs Fayal: result vs prediction
Alcochetense 8 – 0 Fayal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Alcochetense vs Fayal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.1% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcochetense | 55.9% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Fayal | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alcochetense win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 43.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Alcochetense vs Fayal stats
Alcochetense and Fayal recent form
| Alcochetense |
L |
| Fayal |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.