Bragança
vs
Celoricense
6 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | Bragança | ||
| 21′ | Bragança | ||
| 24′ | Bragança | ||
| 31′ | Celoricense | ||
| 71′ | Bragança | ||
| 74′ | Bragança | ||
| 90′ | Bragança |
Bragança vs Celoricense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bragança vs Celoricense
| Probability | Bragança | Draw | Celoricense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 23.4% | 13.8% |
| Market | 50.6% | 28.0% | 21.4% |
| Final | 53.7% | 26.8% | 19.5% |
| Edge | +12.2% | -4.6% | -7.6% |
Why Bragança
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Bragança below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bragança and Celoricense expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Bragança and Celoricense attack and defence ratings
Bragança
Celoricense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bragança vs Celoricense: result vs prediction
Bragança 6 – 1 Celoricense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bragança vs Celoricense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bragança | 53.7% | 1.86 | +12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Bragança win | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bragança | 53.7% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Celoricense | 19.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.7% |
| No | 52.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bragança win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 37.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
Bragança vs Celoricense stats
Bragança and Celoricense recent form
| Bragança |
WLW |
| Celoricense |
WLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Bragança vs Celoricense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Bragança | Celoricense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Celoricense | Bragança | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bragança vs Celoricense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 28.0%, away 21.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.22 | 4.51 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.22 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.18 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .