Torreense
vs
União de Leiria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Torreense
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Torreense is the favourite, not a value bet.
Torreense vs União de Leiria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Torreense vs União de Leiria
| Probability | Torreense | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.0% | 28.1% | 41.9% |
| Market | 43.8% | 26.8% | 29.4% |
| Final | 40.3% | 27.2% | 32.5% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +0.3% | +3.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.1% per unit staked (our 40.3% × 2.18 − 1).
Torreense vs União de Leiria match preview
Torreense faces União de Leiria in a Segunda Liga match on November 9, 2026. According to our model, Torreense has a 40% chance of winning, while União de Leiria's probability stands at 33%, with a 27% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Torreense is 1.21, compared to 1.47 for União de Leiria. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Torreense, occurring at a rate of 7%.
In terms of recent form, Torreense has recorded a W-D-W-L-L-L streak, while União de Leiria shows a W-D-W-L-W-D pattern. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters favors Torreense, with two wins compared to one for União de Leiria. The model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Torreense and União de Leiria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Torreense and União de Leiria attack and defence ratings
Torreense
União de Leiria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Torreense vs União de Leiria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 40.3% | 2.48 | -3.4% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Torreense | 40.3% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| União de Leiria | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Torreense win | 13.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 70.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 0-1 | 8.8% |
Torreense vs União de Leiria stats
Torreense and União de Leiria recent form
| Torreense |
WDWLLL |
| União de Leiria |
WDWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Torreense and União de Leiria season so far
Torreense record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
União de Leiria record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Torreense vs União de Leiria head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Torreense | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga | 3-1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Torreense | União de Leiria | Taça de Portugal | 3-1 |
| 2025-08-29 | União de Leiria | Torreense | Segunda Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Torreense vs União de Leiria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 26.8%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.57 | 3.21 |
| SBO | 2.01 | 3.08 | 2.86 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .