Nacional
vs
Famalicao
0 – 4 Full time
| 7′ | Georgios Koutsias | ||
| 13′ | Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura | ||
| 28′ | Víctor Rofino Gordo | ||
| 40′ | Georgios Koutsias | ||
| 45′ | Jose GomesWilliams Kokolo | ||
| 45′ | Song Min-kyuStavros Gavriel | ||
| 45′ | José Vitor Lima CardosoIvanildo Fernandes | ||
| 61′ | Matchoi DjalóPablo Ruan | ||
| 63′ | Pedro Bondo Francisco | ||
| 67′ | Marcos Vinicios Lopes Moura | ||
| 71′ | Williams Kokolo | ||
| 72′ | Daniel de la CruzWesley | ||
| 73′ | Pedro Bondo FranciscoLeny Remo Meyer | ||
| 73′ | Gil DiasPedro Santos | ||
| 74′ | Matheus dos Santos Dias | ||
| 75′ | Finn van Breemen | ||
| 77′ | Matheus dos Santos Dias | ||
| 80′ | Marcos Vinicios Lopes MouraÓscar Aranda Subiela | ||
| 80′ | Georgios KoutsiasUmar Abubakar | ||
| 83′ | Rodrigo PinheiroGustavo Garcia |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 55 | Possession % | 45 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 433 | Accurate passes | 345 |
Nacional vs Famalicao overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional vs Famalicao
| Probability | Nacional | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 32.6% | 35.9% |
| Market | 25.4% | 28.9% | 45.8% |
| Final | 26.9% | 29.8% | 43.3% |
| Edge | +6.1% | +3.8% | -9.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional and Famalicao expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.10
Nacional and Famalicao attack and defence ratings
Nacional
Famalicao
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nacional vs Famalicao: result vs prediction
Nacional 0 – 4 Famalicao
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional vs Famalicao markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Famalicao | 43.3% | 2.31 | -9.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 26.9% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Famalicao | 43.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.5% |
| No | 56.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Famalicao win | 15.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 64.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.6% | |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
Nacional vs Famalicao stats
Nacional and Famalicao recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional and Famalicao going into this match
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Famalicao record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nacional vs Famalicao head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Famalicao | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Nacional | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-01 | Nacional | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Famalicao | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-05-16 | Famalicao | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2021-01-30 | Nacional | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2018-02-04 | Famalicao | Nacional | Segunda Liga | 3-2 |
| 2017-08-23 | Nacional | Famalicao | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional vs Famalicao odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.4%, draw 28.9%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.84 | 3.38 | 2.11 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.25 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.68 | 3.24 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.93 | 3.35 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.10 | 2.94 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .