Primeira Liga · 2026-09-20T19:30:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 7

FC Porto vs Benfica

3 – 1 Full time

5′			Gabri Veiga
25′			Clément Lenglet
31′			Gabri Veiga
34′			Gianluca Prestianni
35′			Clément Lenglet
38′			Gabri VeigaHwang In-Beom
38′			Heorhii SudakovAlessandro Circati
51′			Alexander Bah
54′			Victor Froholdt
60′			Hwang In-Beom
69′			Martim FernandesFrancisco Moura
69′			William GomesBorja Sainz
74′			Fredrik AursnesLeandro Barreiro
74′			Rafa SilvaDodi Lukebakio
74′			Gianluca PrestianniAndreas Schjelderup
80′			Hwang In-Beom
85′			Eduardo Gabriel Aquino CossaOskar Pietuszewski
85′			André SilvaSamuel Aghehowa
85′			Samuel DahlSouffian El Karouani
90′			Oskar Pietuszewski
90′			Tomás Araújo
90′			Alexander Bah

Estádio do Dragão, PortoReferee: Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

FC Porto

31%

Draw

28%

Benfica

41%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

20	Shots	12
7	Shots on target	3
45	Possession %	55
3	Corners	3
17	Fouls	12
2	Offsides	0
1	Saves	4
310	Accurate passes	360

FC Porto vs Benfica overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto vs Benfica

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	FC Porto	Draw	Benfica
Model	27.9%	27.3%	44.8%
Market	32.4%	28.5%	39.1%
Final	31.2%	28.2%	40.5%
Edge	-4.5%	-1.2%	+5.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Benfica

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.19.
Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 5 for the opposition.
The market prices Benfica below the model: +5.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

78%

3+ goals

52%

No goals

FC Porto and Benfica expected goals

FC Porto

1.19

Benfica

1.58

Total expected goals: 2.77

FC Porto and Benfica attack and defence ratings

FC Porto

Attack

1.28 +28%

Defence

0.65 -35%

Benfica

Attack

1.98 +98%

Defence

0.64 -36%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Porto vs Benfica: result vs prediction

FC Porto 3 – 1 Benfica

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Nacional v Famalicao — match page · 2026-09-19
GIL Vicente vs Maritimo — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Alverca vs Rio Ave · 2026-09-19
Sporting CP vs Arouca · 2026-09-19
Vitória SC vs Moreirense · 2026-09-20
Estrela v Academico Viseu — match page · 2026-09-20
Santa Clara vs SC Braga — team news & stats · 2026-09-20
Estoril v Casa Pia — match page · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

FC Porto, previous: Casa Pia v FC Porto analysis
FC Porto, next: Maritimo – FC Porto, 2026-10-10
Benfica, previous: AC Milan – Benfica, 2026-09-16
Benfica, next: Benfica vs Vitória SC prediction

FC Porto vs Benfica markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Benfica	40.5%	2.47	+5.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.2%	1.92	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	56.4%	1.77	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	71.8%	1.39	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	54.9%	1.82	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	FC Porto	31.2%
	Draw	28.2%
	Benfica	40.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52.2%
	Under 2.5	47.8%
Both teams to score	Yes	56.4%
	No	43.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.5%
	12 (either side)	71.8%
	X2 (draw or away)	68.8%
Handicap -1	Benfica win	23.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.4%
	Loss	54.9%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	13.0%
	1-2	9.3%
	0-1	8.7%

FC Porto vs Benfica stats

FC Porto and Benfica recent form

newest first

FC Porto	WLWWWW
Benfica	WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Porto and Benfica going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Porto record

They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Benfica record

They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.5 goals per match.
They average 4.7 goals per game on the road against 2.3 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.

FC Porto vs Benfica head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3FC Porto wins 2Draws 5Benfica wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-03-08	Benfica	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	2-2
2026-01-14	FC Porto	Benfica	Taça de Portugal	1-0
2025-10-05	FC Porto	Benfica	Primeira Liga	0-0
2025-04-06	FC Porto	Benfica	Primeira Liga	1-4
2024-11-10	Benfica	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	4-1
2024-03-03	FC Porto	Benfica	Primeira Liga	5-0
2023-09-29	Benfica	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	1-0
2023-08-09	Benfica	FC Porto	Super Cup	2-0
2023-04-07	Benfica	FC Porto	Primeira Liga	1-2
2022-10-21	FC Porto	Benfica	Primeira Liga	0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Porto vs Benfica odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.4%, draw 28.5%, away 39.1%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	3.02	3.34	2.49
Bet365	3.00	3.30	2.35
BetVictor	2.70	3.30	2.38
Betano	3.00	3.40	2.50
Betfair	2.90	3.25	2.45
Marathonbet	2.90	3.20	2.39
Pinnacle	3.01	3.29	2.52
SBO	2.72	3.17	2.34
William Hill	2.90	3.10	2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.23

X 3.29 ▼ -0.16

2 2.40 ▼ -0.14

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-14T08:10:01Z.