Paredes
vs
Maria da Fonte
5 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | J. Yuk | ||
| 9′ | Vasco Rocha | ||
| 37′ | M. Lima | ||
| 44′ | J. Yuk | ||
| 64′ | F. Canario | ||
| 74′ | F. Almara |
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paredes vs Maria da Fonte
| Probability | Paredes | Draw | Maria da Fonte |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 27.5% | 31.5% |
| Market | 75.2% | 17.9% | 6.9% |
| Final | 66.7% | 20.3% | 13.0% |
| Edge | -34.2% | +9.6% | +24.6% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paredes and Maria da Fonte expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Paredes and Maria da Fonte attack and defence ratings
Paredes
Maria da Fonte
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte: result vs prediction
Paredes 5 – 1 Maria da Fonte
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paredes | 66.7% | 1.50 | -34.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paredes | 66.7% |
| Draw | 20.3% | |
| Maria da Fonte | 13.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paredes win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 59.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-0 | 8.0% |
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte stats
Paredes and Maria da Fonte recent form
| Paredes |
WL |
| Maria da Fonte |
WL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Paredes vs Maria da Fonte odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.2%, draw 17.9%, away 6.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 5.00 | 13.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.18 | 5.25 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 5.75 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.15 | 5.50 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.19 | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.21 | 4.88 | 10.18 |
| William Hill | 1.22 | 4.75 | 13.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .