Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Maria da Fonte
vs
Uniao Nogueirense
1 – 0 Full time
Maria da Fonte
38%
Draw
30%
Uniao Nogueirense
33%
Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense
| Probability | Maria da Fonte | Draw | Uniao Nogueirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.8% | 29.7% | 32.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.8% | 29.7% | 32.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
Maria da Fonte and Uniao Nogueirense expected goals
Maria da Fonte
1.30
Uniao Nogueirense
1.19
Total expected goals: 2.49
Maria da Fonte and Uniao Nogueirense attack and defence ratings
Maria da Fonte
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Uniao Nogueirense
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense: result vs prediction
Maria da Fonte 1 – 0 Uniao Nogueirense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maria da Fonte | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Maria da Fonte | 37.8% |
| Draw | 29.7% | |
| Uniao Nogueirense | 32.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Maria da Fonte win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.3% | |
| Loss | 62.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Maria da Fonte vs Uniao Nogueirense stats
Maria da Fonte and Uniao Nogueirense recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.