Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Ermesinde
vs
Paredes
1 – 3 Full time
Ermesinde
50%
Draw
26%
Paredes
24%
Ermesinde vs Paredes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ermesinde vs Paredes
| Probability | Ermesinde | Draw | Paredes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.4% | 25.5% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 50.4% | 25.5% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ermesinde
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.19.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Ermesinde and Paredes expected goals
Ermesinde
1.79
Paredes
1.19
Total expected goals: 2.97
Ermesinde and Paredes attack and defence ratings
Ermesinde
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Paredes
Attack
0.83 -17%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ermesinde vs Paredes: result vs prediction
Ermesinde 1 – 3 Paredes
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Ermesinde vs Paredes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ermesinde | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ermesinde | 50.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Paredes | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.4% |
| No | 41.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ermesinde win | 28.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.3% |