Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Castrense
vs
Louletano
0 – 1 Full time
Castrense
21%
Draw
23%
Louletano
56%
Castrense vs Louletano overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castrense vs Louletano
| Probability | Castrense | Draw | Louletano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 22.6% | 56.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 20.9% | 22.6% | 56.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Louletano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.24.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
Castrense and Louletano expected goals
Castrense
1.24
Louletano
2.11
Total expected goals: 3.35
Castrense and Louletano attack and defence ratings
Castrense
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Louletano
Attack
1.24 +24%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Castrense vs Louletano: result vs prediction
Castrense 0 – 1 Louletano
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Castrense vs Louletano markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louletano | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castrense | 20.9% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Louletano | 56.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louletano win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |