Alverca
vs
SC Braga
1 – 2 Full time
| 27′ | Chiquinho | ||
| 40′ | Adrian Bajrami | ||
| 45′ | Ian Luccas | ||
| 46′ | A. BajramiSergio Barcia | ||
| 46′ | TravassosG. Martinez | ||
| 46′ | D. RodriguesF. Navarro | ||
| 50′ | P. Victor | ||
| 53′ | Rayan LucasD. Gui | ||
| 53′ | V. SemedoD. Camara | ||
| 57′ | P. Victor | ||
| 64′ | M. DorgelesT. Marques | ||
| 66′ | Pau Víctor | ||
| 71′ | Ian LuccasZ. Kassary | ||
| 71′ | FigueiredoA. Vidigal | ||
| 83′ | S. GomezC. Nuozzi | ||
| 83′ | D. E. TiknazJ. Milosevic | ||
| 87′ | Gabriel Martínez | ||
| 90′ | Gustaf Lagerbielke |
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 32 | Possession % | 68 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 4 | Saves | 1 |
| 223 | Accurate passes | 617 |
Alverca vs SC Braga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alverca vs SC Braga
| Probability | Alverca | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.6% | 31.1% | 49.3% |
| Market | 19.2% | 27.0% | 53.8% |
| Final | 19.3% | 28.0% | 52.7% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +4.1% | -4.6% |
Why SC Braga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alverca and SC Braga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.06
Alverca and SC Braga attack and defence ratings
Alverca
SC Braga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alverca vs SC Braga: result vs prediction
Alverca 1 – 2 SC Braga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alverca vs SC Braga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 52.7% | 1.90 | -4.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 19.3% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| SC Braga | 52.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.5% |
| No | 60.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win | 24.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.3% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.6% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 13.7% |
Alverca vs SC Braga stats
Alverca and SC Braga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alverca and SC Braga going into this match
Alverca record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Alverca vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | SC Braga | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 5-0 |
| 2025-08-17 | Alverca | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alverca vs SC Braga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.6%, draw 26.8%, away 53.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.74 |
| 1xBet | 4.99 | 3.60 | 1.81 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 3.50 | 1.80 |
| Dafabet | 4.80 | 3.65 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 4.80 | 3.46 | 1.74 |
| Pinnacle | 5.17 | 3.64 | 1.76 |
| SBO | 3.87 | 3.22 | 1.73 |
| Superbet | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| Unibet | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.75 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.30 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .