Alverca
vs
Santa Clara
1 – 1 Full time
Alverca vs Santa Clara overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alverca vs Santa Clara
| Probability | Alverca | Draw | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.5% | 31.1% | 43.4% |
| Market | 34.8% | 30.3% | 34.8% |
| Final | 32.5% | 30.5% | 37.0% |
| Edge | -9.3% | +0.7% | +8.5% |
Why Santa Clara
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.92.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alverca and Santa Clara expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.21
Alverca and Santa Clara attack and defence ratings
Alverca
Santa Clara
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alverca vs Santa Clara: result vs prediction
Alverca 1 – 1 Santa Clara
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alverca vs Santa Clara markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 37.0% | 2.71 | +8.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alverca | 32.5% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Santa Clara | 37.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 56.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | |
| 0-0 | 12.3% |
Alverca vs Santa Clara stats
Alverca and Santa Clara recent form
| Alverca |
LDLLDL |
| Santa Clara |
WWDLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alverca and Santa Clara going into this match
Alverca record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Alverca vs Santa Clara head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Alverca | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Santa Clara | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alverca vs Santa Clara odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 30.3%, away 34.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.66 | 3.15 | 2.66 |
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.16 | 2.82 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.04 | 2.71 |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.08 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.41 | 2.90 | 2.56 |
| Superbet | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Unibet | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .