Arouca
vs
Maritimo
2 – 1 Full time
Arouca vs Maritimo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arouca vs Maritimo
| Probability | Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.6% | 27.1% | 22.3% |
| Market | 42.4% | 29.0% | 28.6% |
| Final | 44.5% | 28.5% | 27.0% |
| Edge | +8.2% | -1.9% | -6.3% |
Why Arouca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.62 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Arouca below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arouca and Maritimo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Arouca and Maritimo attack and defence ratings
Arouca
Maritimo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Arouca vs Maritimo: result vs prediction
Arouca 2 – 1 Maritimo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arouca vs Maritimo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 44.5% | 2.25 | +8.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arouca | 44.5% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Maritimo | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Arouca win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
Arouca vs Maritimo stats
Arouca vs Maritimo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | Arouca | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-23 | Maritimo | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-14 | Arouca | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 0-3 |
| 2021-09-13 | Maritimo | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2017-03-19 | Maritimo | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2016-10-30 | Arouca | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2016-04-24 | Maritimo | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2015-12-19 | Arouca | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 4-1 |
| 2015-05-03 | Maritimo | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2014-12-21 | Arouca | Maritimo | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Arouca vs Maritimo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.4%, draw 29.0%, away 28.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.32 | 3.43 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.35 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.22 | 3.28 | 3.40 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 2.90 | 2.91 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .