Benfica
vs
Estoril
2 – 1 Full time
| 31′ | E. BarrenecheaJ. Palhinha | ||
| 40′ | V. Pavlidis | ||
| 46′ | XekaJ. Holsgrove | ||
| 51′ | C. Lenglet | ||
| 63′ | Rafa SilvaA. Schjelderup | ||
| 71′ | A. LacximicantPeixinho | ||
| 72′ | R. SanchezP. Carvalho | ||
| 72′ | S. AndreouF. Garcia | ||
| 75′ | Ismael Sierra Arnal | ||
| 80′ | G. SudakovG. Moreira | ||
| 80′ | V. PavlidisJ. Duran | ||
| 80′ | G. PrestianniD. Lukebakio | ||
| 82′ | F. MedranoR. Guitane | ||
| 82′ | Y. Begraoui |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 66 | Possession % | 34 |
| 9 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 547 | Accurate passes | 243 |
Benfica vs Estoril overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benfica vs Estoril
| Probability | Benfica | Draw | Estoril |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 89.2% | 8.0% | 2.8% |
| Market | 85.3% | 9.7% | 5.0% |
| Final | 86.3% | 9.3% | 4.4% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -1.7% | -2.1% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.56 vs 0.62.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benfica below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benfica and Estoril expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.19
Benfica and Estoril attack and defence ratings
Benfica
Estoril
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Benfica vs Estoril: result vs prediction
Benfica 2 – 1 Estoril
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benfica vs Estoril markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 86.3% | 1.16 | +3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.6% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 86.3% |
| Draw | 9.3% | |
| Estoril | 4.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 90.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 13.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 75.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 10.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 11.5% |
| 4-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-0 | 9.7% |
Benfica vs Estoril stats
Benfica vs Estoril head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Estoril | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 1-3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Benfica | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Estoril | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-23 | Benfica | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Benfica | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-01-24 | Benfica | Estoril | Taça da Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-07 | Estoril | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Benfica | Estoril | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-09 | Estoril | Benfica | Taça de Portugal | 0-1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Estoril | Benfica | Primeira Liga | 1-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benfica vs Estoril odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 85.3%, draw 9.7%, away 5.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.11 | 8.40 | 18.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 11.40 | 24.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.11 | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 8.50 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.15 | 9.75 | 20.00 |
| Betfair | 1.10 | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 10.00 | 20.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.10 | 9.20 | 19.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 10.14 | 22.18 |
| SBO | 1.10 | 8.49 | 14.92 |
| Superbet | 1.12 | 9.70 | 17.00 |
| Unibet | 1.13 | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| William Hill | 1.10 | 10.00 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .