Aarhus
vs
Benfica
1 – 3 Full time
Aarhus vs Benfica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aarhus vs Benfica
| Probability | Aarhus | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.4% | 15.7% | 70.0% |
| Market | 14.1% | 18.7% | 67.2% |
| Final | 14.2% | 17.9% | 67.9% |
| Edge | +0.2% | -3.0% | +2.8% |
Why Benfica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.06 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benfica below the model: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aarhus and Benfica expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.51
Aarhus and Benfica attack and defence ratings
Aarhus
Benfica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Aarhus vs Benfica: result vs prediction
Aarhus 1 – 3 Benfica
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Aarhus vs Benfica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica | 67.9% | 1.47 | +2.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus | 14.2% |
| Draw | 17.9% | |
| Benfica | 67.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.4% |
| No | 26.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 32.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 85.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica win | 50.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 30.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.6% |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | |
| 1-4 | 5.9% |
Aarhus vs Benfica stats
Aarhus and Benfica recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aarhus and Benfica going into this match
Benfica record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.2 goals per match.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Aarhus vs Benfica head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Benfica | Aarhus | UEFA Europa League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aarhus vs Benfica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 14.1%, draw 18.7%, away 67.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 6.60 | 4.90 | 1.39 |
| 1xBet | 7.39 | 5.57 | 1.40 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.38 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Betano | 7.10 | 5.40 | 1.44 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Dafabet | 7.00 | 5.40 | 1.41 |
| Marathonbet | 6.90 | 5.20 | 1.36 |
| Pinnacle | 6.30 | 5.37 | 1.40 |
| SBO | 5.70 | 4.35 | 1.38 |
| Superbet | 6.60 | 5.10 | 1.41 |
| Unibet | 6.40 | 4.50 | 1.41 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .