Nacional
vs
Estrela
2 – 3 Full time
Nacional vs Estrela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nacional vs Estrela
| Probability | Nacional | Draw | Estrela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.3% | 29.3% | 23.4% |
| Market | 40.8% | 28.9% | 30.3% |
| Final | 42.5% | 29.0% | 28.6% |
| Edge | +6.5% | +0.4% | -6.9% |
Why Nacional
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nacional below the model: +6.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nacional and Estrela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Nacional and Estrela attack and defence ratings
Nacional
Estrela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nacional vs Estrela: result vs prediction
Nacional 2 – 3 Estrela
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nacional vs Estrela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 42.5% | 2.36 | +6.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 42.5% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Estrela | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional win | 23.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Nacional vs Estrela stats
Nacional and Estrela recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nacional and Estrela going into this match
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Nacional vs Estrela head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Nacional | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Estrela | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nacional vs Estrela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.8%, draw 28.9%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.36 | 3.22 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.36 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.24 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.31 | 3.19 |
| SBO | 2.09 | 3.07 | 2.87 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .