Vitória SC
vs
Nacional
1 – 0 Full time
Vitória SC vs Nacional overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vitória SC vs Nacional
| Probability | Vitória SC | Draw | Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 30.3% | 41.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.4% | 30.3% | 41.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nacional
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vitória SC and Nacional expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Vitória SC and Nacional attack and defence ratings
Vitória SC
Nacional
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Vitória SC vs Nacional: result vs prediction
Vitória SC 1 – 0 Nacional
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vitória SC vs Nacional markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nacional | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vitória SC | 28.4% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Nacional | 41.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.6% |
| No | 51.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nacional win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 58.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Vitória SC vs Nacional stats
Vitória SC and Nacional recent form
| Vitória SC |
LLLLLW |
| Nacional |
WDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vitória SC and Nacional going into this match
Nacional record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Vitória SC vs Nacional head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Nacional | Vitória SC | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Vitória SC | Nacional | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Vitória SC vs Nacional odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 25.1%, away 19.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.69 | 3.75 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.88 | 4.88 |
| 888Sport | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.74 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.82 | 5.07 |
| SBO | 1.67 | 3.42 | 4.24 |
| Superbet | 1.71 | 3.85 | 4.85 |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 3.75 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .