FC Porto
vs
Arouca
2 – 0 Full time
FC Porto vs Arouca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Porto vs Arouca
| Probability | FC Porto | Draw | Arouca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.8% | 30.6% | 25.6% |
| Market | 75.2% | 16.2% | 8.5% |
| Final | 67.4% | 19.8% | 12.8% |
| Edge | -31.5% | +14.4% | +17.0% |
Why FC Porto
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Porto and Arouca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.26
FC Porto and Arouca attack and defence ratings
FC Porto
Arouca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Porto vs Arouca: result vs prediction
FC Porto 2 – 0 Arouca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Porto vs Arouca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 67.4% | 1.48 | -31.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Porto | 67.4% |
| Draw | 19.8% | |
| Arouca | 12.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.0% |
| No | 54.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Porto win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 56.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
FC Porto vs Arouca stats
FC Porto vs Arouca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | FC Porto | Arouca | Primeira Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-29 | Arouca | FC Porto | Primeira Liga | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Porto vs Arouca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 75.3%, draw 16.1%, away 8.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.19 | 5.90 | 15.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.25 | 6.79 | 11.60 |
| 888Sport | 1.25 | 5.75 | 10.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 5.25 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 5.80 | 12.00 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.29 | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.23 | 6.10 | 10.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.25 | 6.47 | 11.36 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.42 | 9.06 |
| Superbet | 1.28 | 5.80 | 9.60 |
| Unibet | 1.22 | 6.25 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 10.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .