GIL Vicente
vs
Casa Pia
2 – 0 Full time
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia
| Probability | GIL Vicente | Draw | Casa Pia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 28.3% | 15.6% |
| Market | 55.4% | 26.9% | 17.7% |
| Final | 55.6% | 27.2% | 17.2% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +1.4% | -2.1% |
Why GIL Vicente
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.68.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GIL Vicente and Casa Pia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
GIL Vicente and Casa Pia attack and defence ratings
GIL Vicente
Casa Pia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia: result vs prediction
GIL Vicente 2 – 0 Casa Pia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIL Vicente | 55.6% | 1.80 | +0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIL Vicente | 55.6% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Casa Pia | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.7% |
| No | 60.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | GIL Vicente win | 30.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | |
| 1-1 | 12.6% |
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia stats
GIL Vicente and Casa Pia recent form
| GIL Vicente |
WLLDWL |
| Casa Pia |
LLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Casa Pia | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Casa Pia | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-22 | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Casa Pia | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | 0-0 |
| 2023-10-02 | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-05-27 | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-22 | Casa Pia | GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga | 1-3 |
| 2016-10-16 | GIL Vicente | Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 26.9%, away 17.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.64 | 5.35 |
| 888Sport | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 3.50 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.52 |
| SBO | 1.69 | 3.28 | 4.78 |
| Superbet | 1.73 | 3.55 | 5.20 |
| Unibet | 1.67 | 3.55 | 5.60 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .