Estrela
vs
SC Braga
2 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Gabriel Martínez Aguilera | ||
| 27′ | Stefan Lekovic | ||
| 45′ | Ianis Stoica | ||
| 56′ | Ianis Stoica | ||
| 61′ | Fra NavarroTommy Marqués | ||
| 61′ | Gabriel Martínez AguileraDiogo Martins Travassos | ||
| 61′ | Mario DorgelesGabriel Silva | ||
| 75′ | Santiago SerraJoan Jordan | ||
| 75′ | Ianis StoicaBeni Souza | ||
| 76′ | Pau VictorJonas Wind | ||
| 76′ | Demir Ege TıknazDiego Henrique | ||
| 77′ | João Moutinho | ||
| 85′ | Luan Patrick | ||
| 87′ | Leandro AntonettiRené Mitongo | ||
| 90′ | Lovro ZvonarekKevin Hoog Jansson |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 37 | Possession % | 63 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 281 | Accurate passes | 518 |
Estrela vs SC Braga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Estrela vs SC Braga
| Probability | Estrela | Draw | SC Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.3% | 28.3% | 45.4% |
| Market | 16.2% | 24.7% | 59.1% |
| Final | 18.8% | 25.6% | 55.7% |
| Edge | +10.1% | +3.6% | -13.7% |
Why SC Braga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Estrela and SC Braga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.58
Estrela and SC Braga attack and defence ratings
Estrela
SC Braga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Estrela vs SC Braga: result vs prediction
Estrela 2 – 1 SC Braga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Estrela vs SC Braga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Braga | 55.7% | 1.80 | -13.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estrela | 18.8% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| SC Braga | 55.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | SC Braga win | 23.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 54.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Estrela vs SC Braga stats
Estrela vs SC Braga head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | SC Braga | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 2-2 |
| 2026-01-03 | Estrela | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 3-3 |
| 2025-01-19 | Estrela | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-08-11 | SC Braga | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-02 | SC Braga | Estrela | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
| 2023-09-28 | Estrela | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 2-4 |
| 2021-07-13 | Estrela | SC Braga | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Estrela vs SC Braga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.6%, draw 25.0%, away 57.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.74 |
| 1xBet | 6.03 | 3.95 | 1.63 |
| 888Sport | 4.80 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| Bet365 | 5.75 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.55 |
| Betano | 5.30 | 3.90 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 3.90 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 5.80 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 6.04 | 3.98 | 1.61 |
| SBO | 4.58 | 3.46 | 1.67 |
| Superbet | 5.10 | 3.85 | 1.67 |
| Unibet | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.72 |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.75 | 1.57 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .