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Primeira Liga · Full time ·Matchday 5

Estrela vs Famalicao

2 – 2 Full time

-5′David Grilo
2′G. Koutsias
29′Max Scholze
32′E. Pedro VangaRobinho
46′I. StoicaB. Souza
53′Robinho
57′L. Antonetti
66′Marcos Peña
68′R. BeneyGil Dias
68′M. PenaP. Santos
69′M. Scholze
75′Pedro BondoL. Meyer
75′SorrisoO. Aranda
80′G. Koutsias
81′M. ScholzeJ. Encada
82′G. KoutsiasU. Abubakar
89′EstrelaJoan Jordan
89′L. AntonettiAlisson Souza
90′Leny Meyer

Estádio José Gomes, AmadoraReferee: Vitor Ferreira, Portugal

Estrela 34%
Draw 31%
Famalicao 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 4
41 Possession % 59
5 Corners 5
11 Fouls 9
2 Saves 2
243 Accurate passes 381

Estrela vs Famalicao overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estrela vs Famalicao

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEstrelaDrawFamalicao
Model37.1%32.0%30.9%
Market32.5%30.1%37.4%
Final33.7%30.6%35.8%
Edge+4.5%+1.9%-6.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Estrela ↓ / Famalicao → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 10% 1 12% 15% 2 7% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 13%

Estrela and Famalicao expected goals

Estrela 1.15
Famalicao 1.02

Total expected goals: 2.17

Estrela and Famalicao attack and defence ratings

Estrela

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Famalicao

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estrela vs Famalicao: result vs prediction

Estrela 2 – 2 Famalicao

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Primeira Liga

Before and after this match

Estrela vs Famalicao markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Famalicao 35.8% 2.79 -6.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63.1% 1.58 — —
Both teams to score No 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 69.4% 1.44 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 69.1% 1.45 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Estrela33.7%
Draw30.6%
Famalicao35.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.536.9%
Under 2.563.1%
Both teams to scoreYes45.0%
No55.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.2%
12 (either side)69.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.3%
Handicap -1Famalicao win12.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.7%
Loss69.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-012.8%
1-011.7%

Estrela vs Famalicao stats

Estrela and Famalicao recent form

newest first
Estrela WDDDDL
Famalicao DLLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estrela vs Famalicao head-to-head

Last 6 meetings

2Estrela wins 3Draws 1Famalicao wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-11EstrelaFamalicaoPrimeira Liga0-0
2025-12-27FamalicaoEstrelaPrimeira Liga2-3
2025-01-25FamalicaoEstrelaPrimeira Liga0-0
2024-08-19EstrelaFamalicaoPrimeira Liga0-3
2024-03-16FamalicaoEstrelaPrimeira Liga0-0
2023-10-29EstrelaFamalicaoPrimeira Liga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Estrela vs Famalicao odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 30.0%, away 37.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.05 3.20 2.34
1xBet 3.00 3.18 2.61
Bet365 2.88 3.20 2.50
BetVictor 2.75 3.10 2.45
Betano 2.95 3.15 2.55
Betfair 2.88 3.30 2.40
Dafabet 3.00 3.25 2.50
Marathonbet 2.88 3.06 2.51
Pinnacle 2.98 3.13 2.65
SBO 2.78 2.93 2.23
Superbet 2.95 3.20 2.50
Unibet 3.15 3.15 2.30
William Hill 2.80 3.00 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▼ -0.25
X 3.12 —
2 2.50 ▲ +0.15

10 snapshots recorded, from .