Santa Clara
vs
Famalicao
1 – 0 Full time
Santa Clara vs Famalicao overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Santa Clara vs Famalicao
| Probability | Santa Clara | Draw | Famalicao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.0% | 33.7% | 28.2% |
| Market | 33.6% | 32.7% | 33.6% |
| Final | 34.7% | 33.0% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +4.4% | +1.0% | -5.4% |
Why Santa Clara
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Clara below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Santa Clara and Famalicao expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Santa Clara and Famalicao attack and defence ratings
Santa Clara
Famalicao
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Santa Clara vs Famalicao: result vs prediction
Santa Clara 1 – 0 Famalicao
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Santa Clara vs Famalicao markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 34.7% | 2.88 | +4.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Clara | 34.7% |
| Draw | 33.0% | |
| Famalicao | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.0% |
| No | 60.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Clara win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.4% |
| 1-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
Santa Clara vs Famalicao stats
Santa Clara and Famalicao recent form
| Santa Clara |
WDLWDW |
| Famalicao |
LDWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Santa Clara vs Famalicao head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Clara | Famalicao | Primeira Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Famalicao | Santa Clara | Primeira Liga | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Santa Clara vs Famalicao odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.8%, draw 32.5%, away 33.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.58 | 3.00 | 2.86 |
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 2.94 | 2.88 |
| 888Sport | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 2.88 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.82 | 2.95 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 2.95 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.79 | 2.83 | 2.77 |
| Pinnacle | 2.90 | 2.97 | 2.85 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.80 | 2.65 |
| Superbet | 2.82 | 2.92 | 2.82 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 3.00 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .