Sporting CP
vs
Alverca
3 – 1 Full time
Sporting CP vs Alverca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting CP vs Alverca
| Probability | Sporting CP | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.7% | 20.2% | 13.1% |
| Market | 78.2% | 14.0% | 7.8% |
| Final | 75.3% | 15.5% | 9.2% |
| Edge | -11.5% | +6.2% | +5.3% |
Why Sporting CP
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting CP and Alverca expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.19
Sporting CP and Alverca attack and defence ratings
Sporting CP
Alverca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sporting CP vs Alverca: result vs prediction
Sporting CP 3 – 1 Alverca
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting CP vs Alverca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP | 75.3% | 1.33 | -11.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting CP | 75.3% |
| Draw | 15.5% | |
| Alverca | 9.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.1% |
| No | 44.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting CP win | 44.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 33.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-1 | 9.5% |
Sporting CP vs Alverca stats
Sporting CP and Alverca recent form
| Sporting CP |
WDLWWW |
| Alverca |
DLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting CP and Alverca going into this match
Alverca record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Sporting CP vs Alverca head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Alverca | Sporting CP | Primeira Liga | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Sporting CP | Alverca | Primeira Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting CP vs Alverca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 78.3%, draw 14.2%, away 7.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.21 | 5.90 | 13.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 7.90 | 13.70 |
| 888Sport | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.18 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.24 | 6.50 | 15.50 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.22 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.18 | 6.90 | 12.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 7.55 | 13.70 |
| SBO | 1.20 | 5.90 | 10.12 |
| Superbet | 1.22 | 6.70 | 11.00 |
| Unibet | 1.17 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .