Casa Pia
vs
Moreirense
0 – 1 Full time
| -5′ | Aranha | ||
| 24′ | Kiko | ||
| 46′ | RochinhaA. Dafe | ||
| 61′ | Pedro Rosas | ||
| 61′ | K. PrietoCassiano | ||
| 62′ | Kiko | ||
| 65′ | N. JohnRodri | ||
| 65′ | LandersonT. Andrade | ||
| 71′ | Rodrigo Alonso | ||
| 77′ | KikoL. Santos | ||
| 77′ | M. MendoncaM. Stjepanovic | ||
| 78′ | S. CluaS. Perez | ||
| 78′ | A. JattaH. Araujo | ||
| 78′ | J. RegoB. Pauwels | ||
| 82′ | J. VelosoKevyn Monteiro |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 353 | Accurate passes | 168 |
Casa Pia vs Moreirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Casa Pia vs Moreirense
| Probability | Casa Pia | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 33.7% | 34.1% |
| Market | 43.7% | 29.4% | 26.9% |
| Final | 40.8% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| Edge | -11.4% | +4.3% | +7.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Casa Pia and Moreirense expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.99
Casa Pia and Moreirense attack and defence ratings
Casa Pia
Moreirense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Casa Pia vs Moreirense: result vs prediction
Casa Pia 0 – 1 Moreirense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Casa Pia vs Moreirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 40.8% | 2.45 | -11.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Casa Pia | 40.8% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Moreirense | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Casa Pia win | 12.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 68.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.9% | |
| 0-1 | 12.5% |
Casa Pia vs Moreirense stats
Casa Pia and Moreirense recent form
| Casa Pia |
LLLWDD |
| Moreirense |
LDDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Casa Pia vs Moreirense head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Casa Pia | Moreirense | Primeira Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Moreirense | Casa Pia | Primeira Liga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Casa Pia vs Moreirense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.7%, draw 29.4%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.12 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.56 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.21 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.18 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.28 | 3.49 |
| Unibet | 2.10 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .