Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
AD Nogueirense
vs
Naval 1893
1 – 3 Full time
AD Nogueirense
36%
Draw
28%
Naval 1893
36%
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893 overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893
| Probability | AD Nogueirense | Draw | Naval 1893 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 28.0% | 36.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 36.0% | 28.0% | 36.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
52%
No goals
7%
AD Nogueirense and Naval 1893 expected goals
AD Nogueirense
1.38
Naval 1893
1.38
Total expected goals: 2.77
AD Nogueirense and Naval 1893 attack and defence ratings
AD Nogueirense
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.00 +0%
Naval 1893
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893: result vs prediction
AD Nogueirense 1 – 3 Naval 1893
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893 markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Nogueirense | 36.0% | 2.78 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Nogueirense | 36.0% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Naval 1893 | 36.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% |
| No | 43.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | AD Nogueirense win | 17.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
AD Nogueirense vs Naval 1893 stats
AD Nogueirense and Naval 1893 recent form
| AD Nogueirense |
no matches on record |
| Naval 1893 |
LW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.