Taça de Portugal
·
Full time
·1/128-finals
Nazarenos
vs
Vitória de Sernache
0 – 3 Full time
Nazarenos
44%
Draw
29%
Vitória de Sernache
27%
Nazarenos vs Vitória de Sernache overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nazarenos vs Vitória de Sernache
| Probability | Nazarenos | Draw | Vitória de Sernache |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.8% | 29.0% | 27.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 43.8% | 29.0% | 27.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nazarenos
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
73%
3+ goals
46%
No goals
9%
Nazarenos and Vitória de Sernache expected goals
Nazarenos
1.43
Vitória de Sernache
1.08
Total expected goals: 2.51
Nazarenos and Vitória de Sernache attack and defence ratings
Nazarenos
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
0.81 -19%
Vitória de Sernache
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Nazarenos vs Vitória de Sernache: result vs prediction
Nazarenos 0 – 3 Vitória de Sernache
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Beira-Mar vs União Lamas — team news & stats
- Oliveirense vs Penalva Castelo
- Varzim v Trofense — match page
- Fátima vs Benfica Castelo Branco — team news & stats
- Olímpico do Montijo vs Atlético CP
- Atlético Malveira v Mafra — match page
- FC Serpa vs O Grandolense — team news & stats
- Pacos Ferreira vs Fafe
Before and after this match
Nazarenos vs Vitória de Sernache markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nazarenos | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nazarenos | 43.8% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Vitória de Sernache | 27.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nazarenos win | 21.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.5% |
Nazarenos vs Vitória de Sernache stats
Nazarenos and Vitória de Sernache recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.