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Taça de Portugal · Full time ·Round of 64

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache

0 – 1 Full time

56′Vitória de Sernache
64′Vitória de Sernache
73′Lucas Daniel
80′Brito
80′Brito
90′Vitória de Sernache
90′Brito

Parque de Jogos do Brito SC

Brito 32%
Draw 27%
Vitória de Sernache 42%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Brito vs Vitória de Sernache

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBritoDrawVitória de Sernache
Model37.4%24.1%38.5%
Market29.6%27.8%42.6%
Final31.5%26.9%41.6%
Edge+2.0%-0.9%-1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Brito ↓ / Vitória de Ser → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 8% 2 8% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Brito and Vitória de Sernache expected goals

Brito 1.74
Vitória de Sernache 1.77

Total expected goals: 3.52

Brito and Vitória de Sernache attack and defence ratings

Brito

Attack 1.20 +20%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Vitória de Sernache

Attack 1.11 +11%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache: result vs prediction

Brito 0 – 1 Vitória de Sernache

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Round of 64 fixtures

Taça de Portugal

Before and after this match

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vitória de Sernache 41.6% 2.40 -1.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 68.2% 1.47 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.4% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.5% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Brito31.5%
Draw26.9%
Vitória de Sernache41.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%
Both teams to scoreYes69.4%
No30.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.4%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)68.5%
Handicap -1Vitória de Sernache win20.6%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss61.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
1-28.1%
2-18.0%

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache stats

Brito and Vitória de Sernache recent form

newest first
Brito WLW
Vitória de Sernache WWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Brito vs Vitória de Sernache odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.6%, draw 27.8%, away 42.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.16 3.30 2.17
Bet365 3.10 3.40 2.00
BetVictor 3.10 3.30 2.15
Marathonbet 3.14 3.30 2.15
Pinnacle 2.99 3.03 2.17
William Hill 3.00 3.00 2.10

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.