AD Marco 09
vs
Maia Lidador
1 – 0 Full time
| 40′ | P. Pedro |
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador
| Probability | AD Marco 09 | Draw | Maia Lidador |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 33.1% | 30.2% |
| Market | 70.2% | 20.8% | 9.0% |
| Final | 61.8% | 23.9% | 14.3% |
| Edge | -33.4% | +12.2% | +21.2% |
Why AD Marco 09
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AD Marco 09 and Maia Lidador expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
AD Marco 09 and Maia Lidador attack and defence ratings
AD Marco 09
Maia Lidador
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador: result vs prediction
AD Marco 09 1 – 0 Maia Lidador
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Marco 09 | 61.8% | 1.62 | -33.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AD Marco 09 | 61.8% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Maia Lidador | 14.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.1% |
| No | 57.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | AD Marco 09 win | 15.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 63.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.3% | |
| 1-0 | 12.7% |
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador stats
AD Marco 09 and Maia Lidador recent form
| AD Marco 09 |
WLWW |
| Maia Lidador |
D |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AD Marco 09 vs Maia Lidador odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.2%, draw 20.8%, away 9.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 4.30 | 10.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.27 | 4.33 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 4.60 | 10.00 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 4.20 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 5.00 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 4.30 | 10.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 4.31 | 7.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .