Aberdeen
vs
ST Johnstone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aberdeen
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone
| Probability | Aberdeen | Draw | ST Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.6% | 31.3% | 37.1% |
| Market | 43.2% | 28.3% | 28.4% |
| Final | 40.3% | 29.1% | 30.6% |
| Edge | -11.7% | +3.0% | +8.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.23, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone match preview
Aberdeen will face ST Johnstone in the Scotland Premiership, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. Aberdeen holds a 40% probability of winning, while ST Johnstone has a 30% chance, and a draw stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Aberdeen, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Aberdeen is 1.07, compared to ST Johnstone's 1.18.
In terms of recent form, Aberdeen has recorded a sequence of results including two draws and four losses, while ST Johnstone has a draw, followed by a win, and two losses. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 39%, and both teams are expected to score 47% of the time. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aberdeen and ST Johnstone expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Aberdeen and ST Johnstone attack and defence ratings
Aberdeen
ST Johnstone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 40.3% | 2.48 | -11.7% | 2.23 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.9% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 40.3% |
| Draw | 29.1% | |
| ST Johnstone | 30.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win | 12.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 68.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-1 | 11.1% |
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone stats
Aberdeen and ST Johnstone recent form
| Aberdeen |
DWDLLL |
| ST Johnstone |
DLWDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aberdeen and ST Johnstone season so far
Aberdeen record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 6 matches.
ST Johnstone record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Aberdeen vs ST Johnstone odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 28.3%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.28 | 3.31 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.28 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.41 | 3.36 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.01 | 2.85 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
42 snapshots recorded, from .