Falkirk
vs
Kilmarnock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Falkirk
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock
| Probability | Falkirk | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.3% | 26.4% | 35.3% |
| Market | 51.4% | 24.9% | 23.7% |
| Final | 48.1% | 25.3% | 26.6% |
| Edge | -13.1% | +1.5% | +11.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock match preview
Falkirk and Kilmarnock are set to clash in the Scotland Premiership, with Falkirk holding a 48% probability of winning compared to Kilmarnock's 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Falkirk, which has a 9% likelihood. Both teams have shown similar recent form, with Falkirk recording a W-L-D-W-D-L streak and Kilmarnock also at W-L-D-W-D-L.
The expected goals for this match indicate a closely contested encounter, with Falkirk at 1.55 and Kilmarnock at 1.48. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score. Historically, Falkirk has dominated their recent head-to-heads, winning all three of the last encounters against Kilmarnock.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Falkirk and Kilmarnock expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Falkirk and Kilmarnock attack and defence ratings
Falkirk
Kilmarnock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 48.1% | 2.08 | -13.1% | 1.88 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 48.1% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Kilmarnock | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkirk win | 19.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 61.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock stats
Falkirk and Kilmarnock recent form
| Falkirk |
WLDWDL |
| Kilmarnock |
WLDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Falkirk and Kilmarnock season so far
Falkirk record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Falkirk | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 5-1 |
| 2025-12-20 | Kilmarnock | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Falkirk | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Falkirk vs Kilmarnock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.3%, draw 24.7%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.98 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.75 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .