Dundee
vs
Kilmarnock
Garuda Lions Prediction: Dundee
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.16.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dundee vs Kilmarnock
| Probability | Dundee | Draw | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.6% | 22.3% | 19.1% |
| Market | 48.5% | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| Final | 51.0% | 24.7% | 24.3% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.8% | -1.7% |
Why Dundee
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.16.
- The market prices Dundee below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (our 51.0% × 2.01 − 1).
Dundee vs Kilmarnock match preview
Dundee faces Kilmarnock in a Scotland Premiership clash, with Dundee holding a 50% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Dundee stand at 2.06, while Kilmarnock is projected at 1.26. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Dundee, with a 10% likelihood.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Dundee recording two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Kilmarnock has three wins, two draws, and one loss. The model indicates a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% probability that both teams will score. In their last five head-to-head encounters, Dundee has secured two wins, Kilmarnock one win, and there have been two draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dundee and Kilmarnock expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.28
Dundee and Kilmarnock attack and defence ratings
Dundee
Kilmarnock
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dundee vs Kilmarnock markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee | 51.0% | 1.96 | +2.5% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dundee | 51.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Kilmarnock | 24.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Dundee win | 36.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
Dundee vs Kilmarnock stats
Dundee and Kilmarnock recent form
| Dundee |
LDWWLD |
| Kilmarnock |
LWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dundee and Kilmarnock season so far
Dundee record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Kilmarnock | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Kilmarnock | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Kilmarnock | Dundee | Scotland FA Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-30 | Dundee | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Kilmarnock | Dundee | Scotland Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dundee vs Kilmarnock odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.5%, draw 25.5%, away 26.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.66 | 3.62 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.66 | 3.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.01 | 3.79 | 3.45 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .