Aberdeen
vs
Falkirk
Garuda Lions Prediction: Aberdeen
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Aberdeen is the favourite, not a value bet.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Aberdeen vs Falkirk
| Probability | Aberdeen | Draw | Falkirk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.2% | 27.1% | 26.7% |
| Market | 47.8% | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Final | 47.4% | 26.5% | 26.1% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.2% | +0.2% |
Why Aberdeen
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 1.17.
Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 47.4% × 1.99 − 1).
Aberdeen vs Falkirk match preview
Aberdeen faces Falkirk in the upcoming Scotland Premiership match with a probability of winning set at 50%, while a draw stands at 27% and Falkirk at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Aberdeen, occurring at a rate of 12%. The expected goals for Aberdeen are 1.67, compared to Falkirk's 0.87, indicating a stronger offensive projection for the home side.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Aberdeen recording a sequence of W-L-D-W-D-L and Falkirk with W-L-D-W-D-L. In their last three encounters, Aberdeen has not secured a win, with 1 draw and 2 wins for Falkirk. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Aberdeen and Falkirk expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Aberdeen and Falkirk attack and defence ratings
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Aberdeen vs Falkirk markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 47.4% | 2.11 | -0.4% | 1.99 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aberdeen | 47.4% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Falkirk | 26.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Aberdeen win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.8% |
Aberdeen vs Falkirk stats
Aberdeen and Falkirk recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Aberdeen and Falkirk season so far
Aberdeen record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
Falkirk record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Aberdeen | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Falkirk | Aberdeen | Scotland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Aberdeen | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Aberdeen vs Falkirk odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.8%, draw 26.3%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.56 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.55 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.56 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.58 | 3.72 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .