ST Mirren
vs
Hibernian
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hibernian
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hibernian is the favourite, not a value bet.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ST Mirren vs Hibernian
| Probability | ST Mirren | Draw | Hibernian |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 29.8% | 31.6% |
| Market | 26.9% | 25.8% | 47.3% |
| Final | 29.9% | 26.8% | 43.4% |
| Edge | +2.9% | +1.0% | -3.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.1% per unit staked (our 43.4% × 2.05 − 1).
ST Mirren vs Hibernian match preview
In the upcoming match between ST Mirren and Hibernian, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Hibernian having a 45% chance of winning compared to ST Mirren's 29% and a 27% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams have struggled recently, with ST Mirren recording five consecutive losses before a win, while Hibernian has also faced a tough stretch with six matches without a victory.
The expected goals for ST Mirren stand at 1.15, while Hibernian is slightly ahead with an expected 1.22 goals. The model suggests a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, Hibernian has secured two wins and one draw against ST Mirren, reflecting a favorable head-to-head record.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ST Mirren and Hibernian expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
ST Mirren and Hibernian attack and defence ratings
ST Mirren
Hibernian
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
ST Mirren vs Hibernian markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hibernian | 43.4% | 2.31 | -3.9% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Mirren | 29.9% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Hibernian | 43.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.1% |
| No | 48.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hibernian win | 13.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 68.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.9% | |
| 1-0 | 9.9% |
ST Mirren vs Hibernian stats
ST Mirren and Hibernian recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ST Mirren and Hibernian season so far
ST Mirren record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hibernian record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
ST Mirren vs Hibernian head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Hibernian | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-08 | ST Mirren | Hibernian | Scotland Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Hibernian | ST Mirren | Scotland Premiership | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ST Mirren vs Hibernian odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 25.8%, away 47.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 3.64 | 1.98 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.75 | 2.04 |
| Marathonbet | 3.44 | 3.64 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .