Heart Of Midlothian
vs
Rangers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rangers
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.15.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers
| Probability | Heart Of Midlothian | Draw | Rangers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.9% | 23.7% | 55.4% |
| Market | 29.8% | 26.0% | 44.3% |
| Final | 27.6% | 25.4% | 47.0% |
| Edge | -2.2% | -0.6% | +2.8% |
Why Rangers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Rangers below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.1% per unit staked (our 47.0% × 2.15 − 1).
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers match preview
In the upcoming match between Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with Heart Of Midlothian at 30%, a draw at 26%, and Rangers leading at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Heart Of Midlothian with a mixed record of L-D-W-D-L-W, while Rangers are on a strong run with six consecutive wins, including a draw in their most recent match. In their last four head-to-head meetings, Heart Of Midlothian has secured three wins compared to Rangers' one. The expected goals for this match are 1.39 for Heart Of Midlothian and 1.71 for Rangers.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers attack and defence ratings
Heart Of Midlothian
Rangers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rangers | 47.0% | 2.13 | +2.8% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Heart Of Midlothian | 27.6% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Rangers | 47.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.9% |
| No | 40.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rangers win | 33.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 8.5% |
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers stats
Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers recent form
| Heart Of Midlothian |
LLDWDL |
| Rangers |
WDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Heart Of Midlothian and Rangers season so far
Heart Of Midlothian record
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rangers record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Heart Of Midlothian | Rangers | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2026-02-15 | Rangers | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 4-2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Heart Of Midlothian | Rangers | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Rangers | Heart Of Midlothian | Scotland Premiership | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Heart Of Midlothian vs Rangers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 26.0%, away 44.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.13 | 3.58 | 2.12 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.58 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .