ST Johnstone
vs
Motherwell
Garuda Lions Prediction: ST Johnstone
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.07.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell overview
Garuda Lions analysis: ST Johnstone vs Motherwell
| Probability | ST Johnstone | Draw | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.6% | 24.8% | 20.7% |
| Market | 41.9% | 27.1% | 31.0% |
| Final | 45.1% | 26.5% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +3.2% | -0.6% | -2.6% |
Why ST Johnstone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices ST Johnstone below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.27 − 1).
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell match preview
ST Johnstone hosts Motherwell in the Scotland Premiership with a forecasted probability of 47% for a home win, while Motherwell stands at 27% and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0 in favor of ST Johnstone, with an expected goals metric of 2.02 for ST Johnstone compared to 0.85 for Motherwell.
Recent form highlights a challenging period for Motherwell, who have lost five of their last six matches, while ST Johnstone has recorded two wins and three draws in their last six outings. The model indicates a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% probability that both teams will score, suggesting an intriguing matchup as ST Johnstone looks to capitalize on their home advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
ST Johnstone and Motherwell expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
ST Johnstone and Motherwell attack and defence ratings
ST Johnstone
Motherwell
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 45.1% | 2.22 | +3.2% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.4% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ST Johnstone | 45.1% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Motherwell | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.5% |
| No | 43.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | ST Johnstone win | 31.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 45.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell stats
ST Johnstone and Motherwell recent form
| ST Johnstone |
LDWDLW |
| Motherwell |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
ST Johnstone and Motherwell season so far
ST Johnstone record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Motherwell record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | ST Johnstone | Motherwell | Scotland FA Cup | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
ST Johnstone vs Motherwell odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.9%, draw 27.1%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.44 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.60 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.22 | 3.44 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .