Kilmarnock
vs
ST Johnstone
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kilmarnock
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone
| Probability | Kilmarnock | Draw | ST Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 27.4% | 35.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.6% | 27.4% | 35.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone match preview
Kilmarnock faces ST Johnstone in a closely contested match, with Kilmarnock holding a 38% probability of winning compared to ST Johnstone's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Kilmarnock, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, as indicated by a 59% chance of both teams scoring and a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Recent form shows Kilmarnock with a record of L-W-L-D-W-D, while ST Johnstone has a slightly better record of L-D-W-D-L-W. Expected goals for Kilmarnock stand at 1.45, while ST Johnstone is at 1.39. In their last head-to-head encounter, ST Johnstone emerged victorious, which adds an interesting dynamic to this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone attack and defence ratings
Kilmarnock
ST Johnstone
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kilmarnock | 37.6% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| ST Johnstone | 35.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.7% |
| No | 41.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kilmarnock win | 18.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone stats
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone recent form
| Kilmarnock |
LWLDWD |
| ST Johnstone |
LDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kilmarnock and ST Johnstone season so far
Kilmarnock record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
ST Johnstone record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kilmarnock vs ST Johnstone head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | ST Johnstone | Kilmarnock | Scotland Premiership | 4-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.