Falkirk
vs
Celtic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Celtic
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Falkirk vs Celtic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Falkirk vs Celtic
| Probability | Falkirk | Draw | Celtic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.2% | 24.5% | 41.3% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 34.2% | 24.5% | 41.3% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Falkirk vs Celtic match preview
Falkirk faces Celtic in the Scotland Premiership, with the model assigning a 34% probability of a Falkirk victory, 24% for a draw, and 41% for a Celtic win. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with a 68% chance, and there is a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match. Expected goals are calculated at 1.61 for Falkirk and 1.78 for Celtic.
In terms of recent form, Falkirk has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Celtic has experienced three losses and two wins. Historically, Celtic has dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning all eight of their last meetings with Falkirk. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Falkirk and Celtic expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Falkirk and Celtic attack and defence ratings
Falkirk
Celtic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Falkirk vs Celtic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Celtic | 41.3% | 2.42 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 1.52 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% | 1.48 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkirk | 34.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Celtic | 41.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.6% |
| No | 32.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Celtic win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Falkirk vs Celtic stats
Falkirk and Celtic recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Falkirk and Celtic season so far
Falkirk record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Celtic record
- They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkirk vs Celtic head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 3-1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Falkirk | Celtic | Scotland Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Celtic | Falkirk | Scotland Premiership | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Celtic | Falkirk | League Cup | 4-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Celtic | Falkirk | League Cup | 5-2 |
| 2021-04-03 | Celtic | Falkirk | FA Cup | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.